Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics and the National Energy Administration have successively released data on national economic performance and electricity consumption in the whole society from January to February this year. The national economy has continued to recover steadily, industry and exports have grown rapidly, investment and consumption have recovered steadily, and positive factors continue increase. The electricity consumption of the whole society is growing rapidly. From January to February, the electricity consumption of the whole society in the operation area of State Grid increased by 21.3% year-on-year, reflecting that the economy continued the growth trend since the fourth quarter of last year and achieved a good start.

The rapid growth of electricity consumption in the whole society

From January to February, the electricity consumption of the whole society in the operation area of State Grid (the same below) was 102 billion kWh, an increase of 21.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 30.1 percentage points year-on-year. From January to February in the past two years, the electricity consumption of the whole society has grown by an average annual rate of 5.2%, an increase of 0.9% compared with the same period in 2019. As the 2020 epidemic will have a greater impact on the macro economy and electricity consumption, considering the low base during the same period, various economic and electricity consumption indicators will show a sharp rebound in 2021. In order to objectively reflect the growth of electricity consumption, the analysis of the average annual growth rate of electricity consumption from 2019 to 2021 is added, that is, the average growth rate from January to February from 2020 to 2021 is compared with the growth rate of the same period in 2019. The two-year average growth rate refers to the growth rate calculated using the geometric average method based on the corresponding period in 2019.

From January to February, the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries and residential electricity consumption increased by 27.6%, 25.2%, 20.4%, and 9.8% year-on-year, respectively, and the growth rate increased by 23.5, 38.8, 22.9, and 8.6 percentage points year-on-year.

The contribution rate of the electricity consumption of the secondary industry to the growth of the electricity consumption of the whole society reached 71.5%, which is the main driving force for the rapid growth of electricity consumption of the whole society. Production quickly resumed after the Spring Festival in-situ Chinese New Year policy, coupled with the impact of last year's low base, the secondary industry's electricity consumption has grown rapidly. The Spring Festival holiday spurred the concentrated release of service consumer demand, coupled with the impact of last year's low base, the recovery of electricity consumption in the tertiary industry accelerated. From January to February in the past two years, the average annual growth rate of electricity consumption in the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries and residents’ daily life was 15.3%, 4.0%, 8.3%, and 5.4%, respectively, a change of 7.4, 3.5, and-respectively from the same period in 2019. 2.6, -6.8 percentage points.

Industrial power consumption is growing rapidly

From January to February, industrial electricity consumption was 612.8 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 25.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 38.8 percentage points year-on-year, accounting for 61.2% of the total electricity consumption in society, an increase of 3.0 percentage points year-on-year. The two-year average growth rate of industrial electricity consumption was 4.0%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points from the same period in 2019.

The electricity consumption of 31 major industries in the manufacturing industry is growing positively across the board. From January to February, the electricity consumption of the manufacturing industry increased by 25.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 36.3 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting the further consolidation of the positive trend of manufacturing enterprises. The electricity consumption of 31 sub-industries is growing positively, and the growth rate of 30 industries exceeds 10%.

From January to February, the cumulative electricity consumption of the four major energy-consuming industries was 247.8 billion kWh, an increase of 16.0% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 23.0 percentage points year-on-year. The average growth rate in the past two years was 3.9%, an increase of 3.9 compared to the same period in 2019. percentage point. From January to February, the electricity consumption of the chemical, building materials, ferrous metals, and non-ferrous metal industries was 61 billion, 37.7 billion, 75.7 billion, and 73.4 billion kWh, respectively, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.3%, 36.3%, 16.3%, and 10.3%. The year-on-year growth rate was 20.6, 54.9, 18.5, and 15.1 percentage points respectively.

From January to February, the equipment manufacturing industry used 95.1 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity, accounting for 15.5% of industrial electricity consumption, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from the same period last year. The electricity consumption of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 45.2% year-on-year, 20.0% higher than the growth rate of industrial electricity consumption, and the growth rate increased by 62.1% year-on-year. Among them, the automobile manufacturing industry (63.1%), the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry (61.6%), the general equipment manufacturing industry (56.5%), and the instrumentation manufacturing industry (55.7%) have led the growth in electricity consumption.

Electricity consumption in the service industry is picking up rapidly

From January to February, the power consumption of the producer service industry increased by 19.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 14.9 percentage points from the same period last year, maintaining a rapid growth trend. Among them, driven by the low base in the same period last year and the economic recovery after the epidemic, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the information transmission/software and information technology service industry, scientific research and technical service industry, leasing and business service industry was 29.6%, 29.3%, respectively. 27.6%, maintaining a rapid growth; the financial industry (12.2%), transportation/storage and postal industry (11.4%) all have more than 10% growth in electricity consumption, maintaining rapid growth. From January to February in the past two years, the average annual growth rate of the producer service industry was 11.5%, only 0.5 percentage points lower than the same period in 2019.

From January to February, electricity consumption in the life service industry increased by 23.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 30.0 percentage points higher than the same period last year. All sub-sectors achieved double-digit growth in electricity consumption. Affected by the local Chinese New Year policy and the low base of the previous year, the retail, catering, entertainment and other industries closely related to household consumption have relatively active business activities. Among them, wholesale and retail (28.3 %), education/culture/sports and entertainment industry (24.8%), accommodation and catering industry (20.9%), leading the growth of electricity consumption. From January to February in the past two years, the average annual growth rate of the life service industry was 7.5%, a decrease of 4.2 percentage points from the same period in 2019.

From January to February, residential electricity consumption was 173.1 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 9.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 8.5% year-on-year, accounting for 17.3% of the total electricity consumption in society, a decrease of 2.2% year-on-year. Among them, the electricity consumption of urban and rural residents increased by 10.0% and 9.4% respectively year-on-year, an increase of 11.7% and 4.4% respectively over the same period last year. From January to February in the past two years, the average annual growth rate of residential electricity consumption was 5.4%, a decrease of 6.8 percentage points from the same period in 2019.

Regional electricity consumption has achieved double-digit growth

From January to February, the year-on-year growth rate of electricity consumption in the six major regions, from high to low, were: East China (30.9%), Southwest (27.1%), Central China (21.1%), North China (18.0%), Northwest (14.5%) And Northeast (10.6%). Among them, driven by the rapid recovery in production, electricity consumption in East China achieved a significant rebound from a very low base last year, and the growth rate increased by 46.4 percentage points year-on-year. From January to February in the past two years, the average annual growth rate of electricity consumption in the six regions, from high to low, are: Southwest (10.6%), Northwest (7.5%), Northeast (5.4%), East China (5.2%), North China (4.5%) and Central China (2.5%), with changes of 6.6, 1.6, 5.0, 2.9, -0.2, and -5.5 percentage points respectively over the same period in 2019.

In terms of provinces, the electricity consumption of the 27 provincial-level grids in the State Grid's operating areas all achieved positive year-on-year growth. Among them, 11 provinces, including Zhejiang (43.7%), Tibet (36.8%), and Jiangsu (30.9%), have increased their electricity consumption by more than 20%, and their electricity consumption has rebounded strongly. From January to February in the past two years, the average annual growth rate of electricity consumption in all provinces has been positive growth, and the average annual growth rate of electricity consumption in 15 provinces is higher than the level of the same period in 2019, indicating that electricity demand in most provinces has returned to normal levels; Hubei Due to the greater impact of the epidemic, electricity demand has not been fully recovered, and the average annual growth rate of electricity consumption is 9.3 percentage points lower than the same period in 2019.

The electricity consumption of the whole society is expected to maintain rapid growth in March

In March, industrial production steadily returned to the level before the Spring Festival, and economic operations continued to improve. According to the Central Meteorological Observatory, the temperature in most parts of the country in March was higher than normal. Considering the influence of factors such as economy, temperature and base, it is estimated that the electricity consumption of the whole society in the operation area of State Grid will increase by about 18% year-on-year. The electricity consumption of the whole society in the operation area of State Grid is expected to increase by about 20% year-on-year in the first quarter.

The overall balance of power supply and demand in the operating areas of the State Grid. It is expected that the supply of coal from major thermal power plants will be good, and the water supply from hydropower plants in most areas will be normal. It is expected that the power supply and demand in the operation area of the State Grid will be balanced. Among the provincial power grids, the power supply and demand of the Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Tibet power grids are basically balanced, and the power supply and demand of other provincial power grids are surplus.

Information source: State Grid News, State Grid Energy Institute